A COST OF TRUMP'S IRAN WAR:

GLOBAL DEATH TOLLS ARE RISING

AS FOOD SUPPLIES COLLAPSE

The United Nations World Food Program is warning that the expanding Iran conflict could push global hunger to historic levels. According to recent estimates, as many as 363 million people worldwide are already facing acute food insecurity, with another 45 million potentially pushed toward severe hunger if disruptions tied to the war continue. Rising fuel prices, shipping disruptions, and fertilizer shortages linked to the conflict are now threatening the global food system at a critical moment during the planting season, raising fears of a prolonged agricultural and humanitarian crisis.

One of the biggest dangers comes from energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz remains one of the world’s most important oil and gas transit routes, and instability tied to the Iran war has already pushed fuel and shipping costs sharply higher. Modern agriculture depends heavily on fuel at nearly every stage of production: tractors, irrigation systems, fertilizer manufacturing, food processing, refrigeration, and global transportation networks all rely on oil and natural gas. As energy prices rise, the cost of producing and distributing food rises as well, putting pressure across the entire supply chain.

The fuel crisis is also driving a major fertilizer shock. Fertilizer production relies heavily on natural gas, making it extremely vulnerable to energy price spikes. Since the conflict escalated, fertilizer prices in the U.S. have surged from roughly $350 per ton to nearly $600 in just a few months. Farmers facing soaring costs are cutting back fertilizer use or shifting toward less fertilizer-intensive crops such as soybeans, decisions that can significantly reduce crop yields.

The consequences are expected to hit poorer nations the hardest. Many countries rely on imported fertilizer and fuel to sustain agricultural production, leaving them highly exposed to disruptions tied to Middle Eastern supply routes. As shipping slows and costs rise, vulnerable regions face the possibility of weaker harvests, worsening shortages, and rapidly rising food prices.

In Sudan, where civil war and famine conditions have already devastated millions, the economic fallout is already being felt. Farmers report cutting back planting as fertilizer costs have risen roughly 67 percent while fuel prices have doubled, making transportation and agricultural production increasingly unaffordable. Nearly 19.5 million people in Sudan are already facing crisis-level hunger, and officials warn agricultural production could fall another 40 percent if conditions continue to deteriorate.

The result is a cascading global effect: higher fuel prices → higher fertilizer costs → lower crop yields → rising food prices. Staples such as wheat, corn, and rice are expected to become increasingly expensive, intensifying inflation while placing enormous strain on lower-income populations already struggling with food insecurity. If disruptions continue through multiple growing seasons, the Iran conflict could evolve from a regional war into a worldwide food and economic emergency.

US-Israel war on Iran driving historic levels of global hunger, UN says (The Guardian, 5-27-26)

Iran war poses new threat to harvests in hunger-stricken Sudan (Reuters, 5-25-26)

‘Food security timebomb’: a visual guide to the Gulf fertiliser blockade (The Guardian, 4-3-26)

The war in Iran sparks a global fertilizer shortage and threatens food prices (Action News, 3-30-26)

'The planting season is now,' but war in Iran has sparked a global fertilizer shortage (PBS, 3-27-26)

‘It’s not sustainable’: US farmers reeling as Iran war pushes fertilizer costs up (The Guardian, 3-20-26)

Fertilizer Supply Problems Put Farmers in a Tough Spot (American Farm Bureau Federation, 3-19-26)