THE SHIFTING TIDE: UNDERSTANDING

ZELENSKY'S 60% DROP IN POPULARITY

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, once a figure of resounding hope and political revolution, has seen his popularity tumble dramatically since his landslide victory in 2019. Recent polling indicates a staggering 60% decline in his approval ratings, raising questions about the challenges faced by reformist leaders in post-Soviet states and the fragility of public trust in transitional democracies.

The Highs of 2019: A Mandate for Change

Zelensky's rise to power was meteoric. His outsider status drove him to promises to tackle entrenched corruption, modernize Ukraine's economy, and end the ongoing conflict with Russian-backed separatists in the eastern Donbas region. With over 73% of the vote in the presidential election, his victory marked a clear rejection of the old guard and a demand for sweeping change.

However, governing proved to be far more complex than campaigning, especially in a country with deep-rooted systemic challenges.

Why the Decline?

Several interrelated factors explain Zelensky's steep drop in popularity:

The War in Eastern Ukraine
Despite his initial optimism, Zelensky has struggled to make meaningful progress in resolving the conflict in eastern Ukraine. While his administration has pursued negotiations and attempted ceasefires, the war continues to drag on, creating disillusionment among citizens who hoped for a swift resolution.

Economic Hardships
Ukraine's economy remains fragile, exacerbated by the global economic downturn and the long-lasting effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Inflation, low wages, and limited opportunities have affected public morale, particularly in rural areas where economic challenges are most acute.

Unfulfilled Promises of Reform
Zelensky's pledge to root out corruption and reform Ukraine's political system has been met with mixed results. While some progress has been made, powerful oligarchs and vested interests continue to wield significant influence, leading many to question whether meaningful change is possible.

Criticism of Leadership Style
Zelensky's leadership has been scrutinized for perceived authoritarian tendencies and ineffective decision-making. Critics argue that his reliance on close allies and centralized power contradicts the democratic ideals he espoused during his campaign.

Lessons in Leadership and Governance
The sharp decline in Zelensky's approval is a cautionary tale for reformist leaders worldwide. It highlights the inherent tension between lofty campaign promises and the realities of governance, particularly in countries with complex political, economic, and geopolitical challenges.

Moreover, it shows the importance of managing public expectations. The demand for immediate results can be overwhelming in a nation like Ukraine, where citizens have endured decades of political instability and economic hardship.

What's Next for Ukraine?
Zelensky's future as a leader will depend on navigating these challenges and rebuilding public trust. Key priorities include fostering greater transparency, reinvigorating the reform agenda, and finding innovative solutions to the country's economic and security issues.

As Ukraine approaches the next phase of its journey toward stability and prosperity, its citizens and leaders must grapple with the complex interplay between hope and realism, vision and pragmatism. Zelensky's presidency, once a beacon of hope, now serves as a stark reminder of the difficulties leaders face seeking to drive meaningful change in tumultuous times.

Half of Ukrainians Want Quick, Negotiated End to War (Gallup, 11-19-24)

War Rally Fades for Ukraine's Leadership (Gallup, 11-21-24)

Ukraine's approval for Zelensky drops to 60%, Gallup poll shows (The Hill, 11-21-24)