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At Earth Future Action, we absolutely condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This is a personal issue for us since we have a number of Ukrainian friends. We also support giving aid to Ukraine.
However, the war in Ukraine is a very dangerous situation that needs to be de-escalated as soon as possible.
Supporters of the war assured us that the "counter offensive" of 2023 would produce a great Ukrainian victory. In reality it totally failed.
THE THREAT OF A GLOBAL NUCLEAR WAR
Continuing this war could lead to a nuclear war, which would end life for a good part of the planet. On March 25th, Russian President Putin announced plans to station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus as a warning to the West. There is very good reason to take Putin's threats of nuclear war seriously.
According to the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, the doomsday clock (which measures the chance of a global catastrophe) is closer to midnight than it has ever been, even closer than it was during the height of the Cold War.
DANGER OF CHINESE INTERVENTION
It seems very doubtful to us that China will allow Russia to lose.
WAR NEAR EUROPE'S LARGEST NUCLEAR POWER PLANT
Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in southeastern
Ukraine is the largest nuclear power plant in Europe and among the 10
largest in the world. The continuation of the war in Ukraine increases
the likelihood of a potentially catastrophic nuclear accident far worse
than Chernobyl. Some argue that a meltdown at Zaporizhzhia would be
safer because of the use of pressurized (VVER) water reactors with
containment buildings to prevent radioactive leakage, which is generally
safer. However, there are still safety concerns. There would be a
bigger chance of a nuclear accident if Russia's soldiers took out the
plant's backup diesel generators. The Fukushima nuclear tragedy, for
example, occurred because backup power was taken out by the 2011 tsunami
in Japan.
The head of the U.N.’s atomic energy watchdog also spoke out about this situation as a very dangerous threat.
CLUSTER BOMBS
A sign of desperation on the part of the Biden administration was the decision commit what many regard as a war crime, the use of cluster bombs. Over 120 countries, including 23 NATO countries, ban them under the Convention on Cluster Munitions Treaty. In a letter to Biden from the U.S. Cluster Munition Coalition, over 30 organizations warn President Biden against the dangers of transferring cluster munitions to Ukraine. According to Politico, 14 Senate Democrats wrote to national security adviser Jake Sullivan that “the humanitarian costs and damage to coalition unity of providing U.S. cluster munitions would outweigh the tactical benefits, and urge the president not to approve such a transfer.” (Politico, 6/29/23)
Several high-ranking House Democrats have joined human rights groups in expressing dismay over President Biden's decision to supply Ukraine with cluster munitions; this includes Betty McCollum (D-Minn.), ranking member of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense; Jim McGovern (D-Mass.), ranking member of the House Rules Committee; Barbara Lee (D-Calif.), ranking member of the House Appropriations Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs; along with Sara Jacobs (D-Calif.) and Ilhan Omar (D-Minn).
The House on the night of July 13th, voted down an amendment to the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act that would have prohibited the transfer of cluster munitions to Ukraine. You can see the vote here.
Officials also suggest Ukraine is not tracking where it's using U.S. cluster bombs. (Anti-War, 8-21-23)
A UN expert has also urged the US government to review their decision to transfer cluster munitions to Ukraine. (United Nations, 9-20-23)
UNDERSTANDING UKRAINE'S HISTORY AND ETHNIC BACKGROUND
It's important to understand that the south-eastern territories of Ukraine have a high percentage of ethnically Russian people and Russian speaking people. So the war in Ukraine is more complicated than many people in the West are lead to believe.
THE CURRENT COST IN HUMAN LIVES
The war has already racked up a high cost in terms of human lives. The most senior U.S. general estimates that around 100,000 Russian and 100,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed or injured in the war in Ukraine. The United Nations estimates at least 7,100 Ukrainian civilian deaths. The number of internally displaced Ukrainians stands at roughly 6 million. An additional 8 million Ukrainian refugees have fled to other countries in Europe—the largest wave of refugees on the continent since the end of the Second World War.
GLOBAL ECONOMIC COLLAPSE AND GLOBAL HUNGER
A continuation of the war could also mean global economic collapse and world wide famine. The war is already having global economic consequences as well as consequences on global hunger. And the breach of the Kakhovka dam is likely to make matters much worse. Ukraine and Russia are the world's top exporters of wheat. The head of the World Bank has stated that we are facing a threat of imminent human catastrophe. The head of the African Union has warned that the war in Ukraine is causing a threat to food security in Africa. Due to the complexity of western sanctions and the war it is not going to be possible to resume vital food shipment without a ceasefire. There's a very realistic danger of millions dying in a global famine. The sanctions so far are doing huge damage to western economies (look at the semiconductor industry). We don't disagree with all the sanctions, and think some should stay. However, we shouldn't have sanctions that are going to harm our own economic interests. In a ceasefire they need to be changed.
There is also the damage to the Nord Stream pipelines. This could cause a good part of Europe to have an energy crisis and a social catastrophe if it cannot be repaired.
THE KAKHOVKA DAM BREACH NOW THREATENS THE GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY
Ever since the destruction of the Kakhovka Dam and hydroelectric power station on June 6th, 2023, tens of thousands of people have had to be evacuated from the area. People living in the area now must contend with the risk of disease and floating land mines. Yet in addition to the cost to the locals, this will have worldwide effects as well. The destruction of the dam has led to fears that a depleted reservoir will leave three critical regions in Ukraine’s bread basket without a key water supply. This has led to warnings about the region and the world’s food supply, with Ukraine accounting for 40% of global trade in sunflower meal, 35% of sunflower oil, and 5% of wheat, barley, and corn exports. This is yet another example of how there is no such thing as a nice, neat contained war. The effects of the war in Ukraine have already impacted the world, and as long as the war goes on, it will only get worse.
WHAT IS THE U.S. END GAME IN THE WAR?
The situation in Ukraine needs to move to an end game of peace in Europe. Unfortunately, it is not clear what the end game of the U.S. government is. Is peace their end game? Or is it their interest to use Ukraine to weaken Russia as a world power? The latter is a very dangerous strategy. And the missiles that hit Poland in November are not a good sign.
So far, there has been a troubling lack of a commitment to peace coming from the U.S. What is particularly insane is that U.S. officials have been saying they would rule out pushing Ukraine to negotiate with Russia, even though they privately admit that neither Russia or Ukraine is capable of winning the war outright. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy has also stated that he will not negotiate with Russia as long as President Vladimir Putin remains in power. Is it realistic that Putin is going to resign any time soon? We think not.
Last year, the four star general and Joint Chiefs chair, Mark Milley, stated during an appearance at the Economic Club of New York that a victory by Ukraine may not be achieved militarily. (Politico, 11-14-22)
So what is the end game then? Endless fighting? What will that achieve? The current strategy is likely to cause an escalation to an even wider war. And there is no such thing as a "winnable nuclear war." In nuclear war, everyone loses. The entire planet loses. It's game over for a good majority of the human race. So the current U.S. strategy is a study in insanity.
While we don't claim to have all the answers, we know that what needs to happen next should happen at the negotiating table, not the battlefield.
GLOBAL SUPPORT FOR PEACE
Sixty-six nations at the UN General Assembly have called for an end to the war (Common Dreams, 9-29-22).
There have also been protests for peace in both Germany and the U.S. On February 25th, there was a peace march in Germany with 50,000 people. And on March 18th, there was a peace protest in the U.S. with thousands of anti-war protesters gathered in front of the White House. Nearly 300 organizations supported the protest.
Also, only a minority of the world's population condemns Russia.
AMERICAN SUPPORT FOR PEACE
The American people also agree with the rest of the world. Poll: 60% of Americans support quick diplomatic end to war in Ukraine.
And most American people do not support more aid for the Ukraine war. See the poll here.
Given the dangers of nuclear war, the current situation with global hunger, and the unlikely chance that Ukraine will win the war out right, it is a matter of global security to end this war as soon as possible.
We call on you, President Biden, to work for a viable plan for peace, for a plan to end the crisis that began in 2014.
What needs to happen to end the war? We have some ideas. It involves unhappy choices for all.
An immediate ceasefire needs to take place. Negotiations need to happen.
The West needs to renegotiate sanctions that are harming the global poor, along with Western economic interests.
Ukraine may have to accept the loss of Crimea and some of their Eastern territories. While we understand that this is a controversial point, it is important to understand the ethnic makeup of Eastern Ukraine. The majority of people in these territories are ethnically Russian and have a history connected to Russia. So the situation is not as simple as many people in the West may believe.
Our planet needs to come together to deal with climate change and other threats to our survival (such as the pandemic).
Our plan is not perfect. Better plans may exist. But it's time for action to help the people of Ukraine. Many have already died. They cannot wait.
ALSO NOTE: If the war cannot be ended soon, we call for a limited No Fly Zone in western Ukraine. The people of Ukraine need protection.
RECENT KEY NEWS ARTICLES
Official Suggests Ukraine Is Not Tracking Where It's Using US Cluster Bombs (Anti-War, 8-21-23)
Don’t Let Ukraine Become Another Forever War (Common Dreams, 8-15-23)
Biden Administration Poised to Supply Ukraine With Banned Cluster Bombs (Common Dreams, 7-1-23) Letter from CMC to Biden
Most Americans don’t want Congress to approve more aid for Ukraine war (Responsible Statecraft, 8-4-23) See poll here
'A Terrible Mistake': Key Dems Oppose Biden's Move to Send Cluster Munitions to Ukraine (Common Dreams, 7-8-23)
Jeffrey Sachs: Bipartisan Support of War, from Iraq to Ukraine, Is Helping Fuel U.S. Debt Crisis (Democracy Now, 5-24-23)
The end of Ukraine aid is rapidly approaching. Reupping it won’t be easy (Politico, 5-15-23)
Putin says Russia will station tactical nukes in Belarus (AP News, 3-25-23)
SUPPORT FOR PEACE IN UKRAINE
We Call For Democracy in Ukraine (Earth Future Action Report)
Most Americans don’t want Congress to approve more aid for Ukraine war (Responsible Statecraft, 8-4-23) See poll here
Russia-Ukraine War: The U.S. Should Be a Force for Peace (Eisenhower Media Network)
US National Security Experts: Give Peace in Ukraine a Chance (Common Dreams, 5-16-23)
Only 15.2% Of The World's Population Condemns Russia (Zero Hedge, 5-11-23)
Major Climate Organizations Demand Peace Talks in Ukraine (Common Dreams, 4-27-23)
To Save Ukraine, End the War (The Nation, 2-16-23)
GOP LETTER
GOP Letter on Spending in Ukraine PDF (9-21-23)
The above letter is from a collection of Republican senators and representatives to the Office of Management and Budget.
The letter is inquiring about why an additional $24 billion in aid has been requested for Ukraine.
They are also asking if there is an exit plan for Ukraine, if things have improved in 6 months, or if the war is supposed to go on indefinitely.
FACTS ABOUT THE CONFLICT IN UKRAINE
See Our Fact Sheet on the Crisis
Letter Regarding Additional Funding to Address Assistance to Ukraine and to Support the United States Response to COVID-19 | OMB | The White House (The White House, 11-15-22)
U.S. scrambles to reassure Ukraine after Milley comments on negotiations (Politico, 11-14-22)
UN Report on the Effect of Ukraine War on Global Food Supply (UN, 2022)
Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia (BBC, 9-22-22)
Putin threatens to use nuclear weapons as he escalates his invasion of Ukraine: 'This is not a bluff' (Business Insider, 9-20-22)
GAS EXPORTS
Chipmakers brace for trouble as Russia limits rare gases exports
Nord Stream pipeline leaks spark sabotage fears (Axios, 9-27-22)
TREATIES
Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe
Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty
RUSSIAN PEACE PROPOSALS
We do not support the Russian Proposals. However, we are supplying a link to what Russia said in the interest of providing documentary material to educate our readers.
We put their material on our site since the Russian sites have usually not been reachable